This chart shows the effects of resuming more contact between people in B.C. (From B.C. government.)
I’m not expecting any major changes when Premier John Horgan announces B.C.’s plan for reopening this week.
I think we will see the same careful, methodical approach that got us to the so-called “end of the beginning” of the covid-19 pandemic.
B.C.’s lockdown was nowhere near as severe as those in other jurisdictions, so our re-opening is also likely to be more gradual. For example, in Spain, children were finally allowed to play outdoors for one hour last week as part of relaxed restrictions. In B.C., although playgrounds have been closed, playing outdoors has been highly recommended by our provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry throughout the lockdown.
In Ontario, garden centres were allowed to open for curbside pickup today, May 4. In B.C., garden centres and all other businesses, except personal services like massage therapy or hair stylists, have been allowed to operate with curbside pickup all along.
Construction sites are now reopening in Quebec. In B.C., they’ve been operating throughout covid-19. In Washington state, schools will be closed at least until September. In B.C., they’ve been open (except for one week after spring break) to provide childcare for healthcare workers, a service that has already expanded to include vulnerable students and that is likely to expand even more, but gradually, over the next few weeks.
B.C. has always allowed gatherings up to 50 people, even though they are highly discouraged. In New Zealand, they’ve reopened schools for kids up to age 10 and many businesses, but they’re still only allowing weddings and funerals with up to only 10 people.
“If we look at the orders and restrictions put in place here in B.C., they have not been as draconian if you might say than some of the other places,” Henry said this weekend during her briefing. “I’ve been watching Sweden and have been looking at the measures they’ve been taking, many of which are similar to the measures we’ve been taking.”
B.C.’s approach has worked, whether that’s down to luck, expert leadership, the weather, our willingness to follow the rules or some other unknown factor.
This B.C. government chart shows how B.C. has flattened its pandemic curve.
Our case rate is just 439 per million people and our death rate is just 23 per million people. Compare that to Canada as a whole, where the case rate is 1,573 per million people and the death rate is 97 per million people. (Numbers current as of May 3, 2020.) Our neighbour to the south, Washington state, has 2,127 cases per million people and a death rate of 115 per million people. Sweden’s rate is 2,210 per million and 265 per million deaths.
B.C. is faring quite well. New Zealand is faring better – they have a death rate of only four deaths per million people — and several Asian countries also have very low rates.
“Our dynamic modelling shows us that we have been able to put the brakes on COVID-19, but we haven't stopped the car,” Henry said.
The level of interaction happening between people in B.C. is now at about 30 per cent of normal, Henry said. She showed modelling graphs that predict raising that level to about 60 per cent of normal would keep the pandemic manageable for our hospitals. If we increase to 80 per cent of normal, there would be a massive surge of cases and hospitals could be overwhelmed.
"Our challenge and our work together is to find that sweet spot, increasing our contacts to about twice as many as we have now, but without allowing opportunities for exponential growth," Dr. Henry said.
I’m expecting Horgan will tell us we can slightly expand our social circles, but very, very carefully. It’s like the advice about sexually transmitted diseases: if you have sex with someone, you’re also exposing yourself to all of their other partners. Now, the same is true of socializing. Whoever you allow into your bubble, you’re also exposing yourself to all of their other contacts.
I do think B.C. will start to allow at least some elective surgeries that have been postponed, given our hospitals have capacity. But I don’t expect a quick return to getting our hair cut, seeing the dentist, or eating inside a packed restaurant although I’m sure work is underway to figure out how to reopen personal services safely.
Henry did mention Little League baseball, so I'm hopeful some sort of organized sports may be able to resume.
This B.C. government chart shows that men, people older than 50 and people with chronic conditions have a higher likelihood of more serious illness.
We will have to pay particular mind to protecting anyone who is older than 50, particularly men and those who have chronic health conditions like diabetes, heart or lung disease, cancer or auto-immune diseases.
Henry released statistics on Monday showing that 97 per cent of the people who have died from covid-19 are older than 50, 72 per cent of those who died were male, and 83.6 per cent of those who died had a chronic condition. No one is sure yet why more men are dying than women.
There have also been about 170 more deaths than expected since March in B.C. and about 60 of those are unexplained, Henry said. They could be due to people with chronic health conditions avoiding emergency rooms. Her team will be investigating this when data from vital statistics becomes available, she said.
Meanwhile, many unknowns remain about this disease, particularly around immunity and whether it will return stronger in the fall.
In the meantime, the virus can be “smoldering” around undetected, Henry said.
“We need to have ‘zero’ threshold for not staying home if we're not feeling well,” Henry said. "We really are in uncharted territory right now.”
A cautious, gradual opening, starting with slightly expanded social circles, makes sense.
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