The federal government is projecting a $343-billion deficit for this fiscal year.
Even though it seems relatively normal in B.C., a financial update by the federal government shows it's really anything but.
Calling the information a “fiscal snapshot,” Finance Minister Bill Morneau said in a speech that “the best economic policy continues to be containing the spread of the virus.”
The snapshot forecasts government debt of $1.2 trillion by March 2021 and a deficit for this year of $343.2 billion. Shocking numbers, especially considering Canada’s low unemployment and fiscal strength as recently as February.
The government’s response to covid-19 is the “most comprehensive and substantial peacetime investment in Canada’s history,” Morneau said.
Apparently, the debt will be “affordable” due to historically low interest rates.
Benefits like Canada’s Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) have made the pandemic easier to bear for those who are most vulnerable. It has meant people can stay home, rather than possibly going to work sick, or after being out of the country, or otherwise possibly exposed to covid-19, but still in need of a pay cheque to buy food or pay rent.
“We did this because that’s what Canadians do. We take care of one another,” Morneau said.
I like to believe that Canadian spirit has helped us “bend the curve” on this pandemic, but I know the pandemic is far from over and our success is fragile.
As we watch the United States – where more than three million people have tested positive for covid-19, 135,000 have died and there are nearly 10,000 cases for every million citizens – we know one wrong step could cause a virus resurgence here.
Canada has had 106,000 cases, just about 9,000 have died and there are about 2,800 cases for every million citizens. B.C. has had 3,028 cases, 186 have died and there are about 600 cases per million citizens.
I’m not saying the Canadian social safety net stopped the virus, but it didn’t hurt.
I don’t think the government had any other options but to spend a lot of money to keep people safe, fed and sheltered, but it’s going to be painful to pay it back.
My list of changes this week is shorter than normal, but I wouldn’t say that’s because things have stopped changing. News always slows down in the dog days of summer.
Here’s my list:
- More than 5 million Canadians – 30 per cent of the workforce – either lost their jobs or saw their hours significantly scaled back over March and April, the “fiscal snapshot” shows.
-Canadian economists expect the GDP to drop more than 40 per cent in the second quarter of this year. They expect the economy to contract by 6.8 per cent in 2020, its sharpest drop since the Great Depression, but say it might bounce back by 5.5 per cent in 2021, the feds said a news release.
- Nearly one million jobs were added back into the Canadian economy in June, but that still leaves 3.1 million people out of work and an unemployment rate of 12.3 per cent, Statistics Canada reported. In B.C., more than 118,000 people found jobs in June, but the unemployment rate is 13 per cent. It was 5 per cent in February.
- B.C.’s Finance Minister Carole James said women are more likely to have lost their jobs than men and youth unemployment is a “staggering” 29 per cent.
- The Canadian Association of Chiefs of Police (CACP) endorsed the decriminalization of personal possession of illicit drugs and recommended that police recognize substance abuse and addiction as a public health issue. That policy switch is a bid to reduce drug overdoses.
- There are now more than 12 million people who have tested positive for covid-19 around the world and half a million have died.
- In a letter to the World Health Organization, 239 scientists say covid-19 is airborne and urge the WHO to revise its guidelines. The WHO has now acknowledged that airborne transmission can't be ruled out and that asymptomatic people can pass on the covid-19 virus.
- Black and Latino people are disproportionately affected by covid-19 in the United States, the New York Times reported. Racial data has not been collected in Canada, but Dr. Bonnie Henry, B.C.’s provincial health officer, has said the provincial survey will include racial results.
- Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro tested positive for covid-19. Brazil is second only to the United States for both total cases and deaths.
- B.C. extended its state of emergency until July 21, 2020.
- The British government will pay half of restaurant and pub bills in August, the Globe and Mail reported. It’s a bid to kick start the economy.
I’m going to wrap up this week with a question for the scientifically minded. If up to 45 per cent of covid-19 cases are asymptomatic, as this research found, and people who have asymptomatic cases have very little immunity as this research found, then what is the role of an asymptomatic case? Are asymptomatic people just vectors for passing on the disease? If they get infected again, will they always be asymptomatic?
Stay safe everyone.
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