These charts are from B.C.'s latest modelling projections and show how the covid-19 curve could take off in the wrong direction if social contacts are increased to 80 per cent of normal.
This week, B.C. saw a surge in cases, starting about a week ago, when our average daily new cases went from around 10 to around 20. This week we have about 30 new cases every day and Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry is warning us that the province is at a turning point and “explosive” growth in cases is possible.
More than 1,000 British Columbians are now self-isolating due to exposure related to gatherings in Kelowna that have resulted in nearly 100 new cases. A drum circle of dozens of people crowded onto Third Beach in Stanley Park this week – we don’t know yet if any cases will emerge from that, but it shows our complacency is rising. “C’mon, you’re better than that,” B.C. Premier John Horgan said in response.
Dr. Henry provided new modelling this week, some of which is pictured above, that showed B.C.'s vulnerability. If we continue at our current level of social contacts, or increase it, the number of new cases could take off.
Dr. Henry doesn’t want to crack down on people gathering, but she says groups of six are probably the biggest that should gather. Socializing is important, but we can’t let our guard down, she said.
"We have always relied on people's best judgement and best sense," Dr. Henry said.
Meanwhile, there are more than 15 million cases around the world and more than 600,000 people have died. There were more than 250,000 new cases on July 22, a record number. It’s all pretty depressing, so my list this week starts with two promising developments:
- There’s some good news on the vaccine front. A Covid-19 vaccine being developed at Oxford University has triggered a good immune response and has shown to be safe, The Guardian reports.
- In other good news, The New York Times reports that a new drug is showing promise against covid-19. An inhaled form of interferon beta showed promise in a small trial of 101 people.
- In the not-so-good news category, it is becoming clear that people can have long-lasting effects, even after they’re “recovered” from covid-19. "This really can knock you flat on your back for a long time," Dr. Henry said. These effects, like fatigue, hit young people and older people.
- The debate over schools and whether education should be in person is raging across North America. The B.C. government has promised an announcement next week, but Premier Horgan has said the government will monitor the situation until September.
- B.C. courts will resume jury trials on September 8, after six months without.
- A covid-19 outbreak was declared in the neo-natal intensive care unit at St. Paul’s Hospital. This is a unit that cares for premature babies.
- The Toronto Blue Jays won’t be allowed to play their home games in Toronto, due to travel restrictions. Major League Baseball hopes to restart in early August.
- Recreational sports have restarted in B.C., for both children and adults.
- Park and beach concession stands are now open in Vancouver.
- B.C. public health will be modifying the rules for rentals like Airbnb and houseboats, limiting the number of people who can stay as well as the number of guests, Dr. Henry said.
- Science World is reopening in August.
- There were covid-19 outbreaks at two restaurant chains in Metro Vancouver.
- Dr. Bonnie Henry updated the rules around bars and pubs, in a bid to make it safer and to prevent outbreaks. People will now have to have assigned seats and they will not be able to move around or dance, among other changes.
- Some experts are now saying masks also protect the person wearing the mask, as well as protecting others. The medical expertise on masks has been evolving throughout the pandemic and will continue to do so.
- Quebec made the use of masks mandatory in indoor spaces. B.C.’s Dr. Henry says she’s not ready to do that, however if there is a lot of community spread she may consider it.
- Marriott Hotels will also require their guests to wear masks.
Let’s hope next week doesn’t have an explosion in covid-19 cases in B.C. Fingers crossed.
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