This graphic shows where different age groups in B.C. were exposed to covid-19. The dark green is healthcare settings, more prominent among the oldest people, while the dark red is households, more prominent among children. (Screengrab from BC CDC report.)
British Columbians need to dial back our social interactions to about half of pre-pandemic levels to get our covid-19 curve flat again, the province’s top doctor said.
If we carry on as we have been lately – at between 60 and 70 per cent of pre-pandemic interaction levels – the curve will continue to bend the wrong way, pointing sharply upwards, graphs presented by Dr. Henry show.
As B.C. enters the last long weekend before thousands of children and teachers return to school, Henry urged everyone to stop high-risk activities, like spending time with groups of people they don’t know.
“There’s no magic number, but we know the fewer people the better,” Henry said. "We still have it in our hands, in our actions, to bend our curve back down and that’s what we need to focus on. We are at that limit, we are at that precipice, if you will, where we need to take the actions to ensure that we can move forward into the fall and keep our curve low.”
About 20 per cent of B.C.’s cases come from unknown sources, but Dr. Henry said that is an acceptable level. About eight per cent come from international travel, 62 per cent from contact with a known cluster and another 10 per cent either haven’t been figured out yet or have missing information, data from the BC Centre for Disease Control shows.
The graphic posted with this story shows where different age groups were exposed to the virus and makes it clear most older people were exposed in healthcare settings, while most children were exposed at home. That may change as schools open.
B.C.’s incidence rate of covid-19 per 100,000 people is 11, but experts say opening schools and businesses is safe as long as that incidence rate is below 25. But more than 90 per cent of B.C.’s recent covid-19 cases are in Metro Vancouver — the incidence rate in Fraser Health is 15.7 and in Vancouver Coastal Health is 18.6.
"We are keeping a fine balance, but it is at the edge," Dr. Henry says. “Now we have the choice, as we are moving into the fall. … We need to all continue to make those choices to keep our loved ones, our elders and our communities safe.”
There were 669 new covid-19 cases in B.C. this week, up from 547 last week. The number of active cases is the highest ever, at 1,175.
Things continued to change at a rapid pace globally. Here’s my list for this week:
- The world passed 25 million coronavirus cases and 850,000 deaths.
- The Canadian economy continues to swoon due to the pandemic. Canada’s gross domestic product fell 11.5 per cent in the second quarter of this year, Statistics Canada reported. This is the sharpest decline since Canada started collecting this type of data in 1961, Statistics Canada reported. It largely reflects decreases in household spending, business investment and international trade due to business shutdowns, border closures and travel restrictions.
- B.C.’s fiscal year 2019-2020, which ended in March, finished with a deficit of $321 million, rather than a forecasted surplus. This was due to covid-19 measures, lower tax revenue and an investment loss due to market conditions, the government said in a news release.
- B.C. Premier John Horgan is the country’s most popular premier, a new poll from the Angus Reid Institute shows. Horgan has a 69-per-cent approval rating, mostly due to the province’s covid-19 response, the poll found.
- The Vancouver Aquarium is going to pause public programming after September 7, the organization said on twitter. Calling it a temporary pause, the organization said it will focus on caring for its animals, while looking for a way to reinvent itself for covid times.
- Protests against mask wearing and other covid-19 restrictions happened across Europe last weekend.
- The B.C. government released a TV advertisement with Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry talking about the back-to-school plan. Global News reported that the government said in a statement that “in order to videotape the ad, the number of students in the room was limited for health and safety reasons and the children were placed at safe distances from each other.” Teachers, who have been critical of the government’s plan due to concerns that social distancing won’t be possible in classrooms, were not impressed. Dr. Henry said the ad was not intended to represent a typical classroom, but was a conversation between herself and children and parents.
- B.C. extended its state of emergency until at least September 15.
- B.C. has nearly caught up in its surgeries that were missed due to the pandemic. The province has completed 11,249 of the 17,154 surgeries that were postponed. That’s 66 per cent.
- In hopeful news, the World Health Organization issued new covid-19 treatment guidelines which say that corticosteroids are effective in fighting severe illness.
Next week at this time, students will have visited their classrooms to meet their teachers. Let’s hope it goes smoothly.
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