The above modelling shows that current public health measures will be insufficient to protect against a resurgence of COVID-19 due to variants of concern. (Public Health Agency of Canada.)
Canada’s chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam warned Friday that the variants of concern increase the threat of a spring resurgence of COVID-19. Tam’s latest modelling shows that if we maintain restrictions that are in effect now, the number of new cases could explode in March or April, but if public health measures are strengthened, the pandemic could be controlled.
Tam urged everyone to have the fewest interactions with the fewest people for the shortest time and at the greatest distance possible, all while wearing a face mask.
In B.C., provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry cautioned that three key indicators for COVID-19 are ticking upwards in B.C., particularly in the Fraser Health region. Those indicators are the percentage of positive tests, the reproductive number and the seven-day rolling average of new cases. All of these indicators reflect what happened two weeks earlier, she said. After she made these remarks, the number of cases jumped 50 per cent, from what had been a fairly stable 400 cases per day, to 600 in a single day, the highest one-day total since Jan. 8.
Meanwhile, B.C. has detected 72 COVID-19 cases caused by variants, including 52 cases of B.117 and 20 of B.1351, said Dr. Reka Gustafson, B.C.’s deputy provincial health officer.
About the federal government modelling that warns that a "third wave" is possible due to the variants, Dr. Gustafson said modelling is modelling — it's not an absolute prediction. A possibility of a resurgence of cases absolutely exists, but it's not certain, Dr. Gustafson said.
The best defense is the same as it has always been against COVID-19, staying home when sick, washing our hands, using physical distancing and wearing a mask.
Meanwhile, B.C. had its biggest vaccine day ever this week, giving more than 12,000 vaccines in a single day, the province’s health minister Adrian Dix said. Nonetheless, it’s still only about four per cent of British Columbian adults who have been vaccinated, Dix said.
Dr. Gustafson said rigorous debate about the effectiveness of giving just one dose of COVID-19 vaccine is underway around the world.
"The data are being looking at very, very carefully," she said.
Dr. Henry said earlier in the week that a delay in second doses of the COVID-19 vaccines does not hamper their effectiveness and may actually result in a stronger and long lasting immune reaction.
Meanwhile, here’s the rest of this week’s pandemic news:
- There were two significant community outbreaks declared in Fraser Health region this week. The first was at Timothy Christian School in Chilliwack, where there were 35 cases found among staff and students. The outbreak was reported on Feb. 16, but the school had been closed since Feb. 4, due to staff needing to isolate. The second outbreak was at SFU Childcare Society in Burnaby, where 24 positive cases were identified among staff and children. Five of the daycare’s classes are closed, while the rest continue to operate.
- Dr. Gustafson said about 90 per cent of school exposure notices do not result in a second case of COVID-19.
- Nearly 13 per cent of Vancouver residents collected the Canada Emergency Response Benefit last year, the Canadian Press reported.
- A survey of youth has been launched by researchers at the University of British Columbia, Simon Fraser University, BC Children’s Hospital and the BC Centre for Disease Control. You can participate through the BCCDC online: https://www.bcchr.ca/POP/our-research/pics
- B.C. Supreme Court chief justice Christopher Hinkson ruled against the province in its quest to get an injunction against three churches so they cannot hold in-person services. “To be clear, I am not condoning the petitioners’ conduct in contravention of the orders that they challenge, but find that the injunctive relief sought by the respondents should not be granted,” Hinkson wrote in his decision. Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry said she respects the judge’s decision, but said she expects the churches to obey her orders even while pursuing a Charter challenge of those orders. “With the presence of new COVID-19 variants of concern in B.C., it is critical that we follow public health orders and direction to limit the spread of the virus,” Dr. Henry said.
- Five Vancouver police department employees have tested positive for COVID-19 and another 27 have had to self-isolate, the Vancouver Sun reported.
- Israel has vaccinated nearly half of its population, but now some reopened areas, like shopping malls, are requiring proof of vaccination for entry, the New York Times reports.
- Life expectancy in the United States fell by a full year in the first half of 2020, the New York Times reports.
- COVID-19 cases in Canada and around the world are starting to fall and it could be due to seasonality, vaccine immunity or stricter measures, or all three, the Globe and Mail reports.
Next week will mark 50 weeks of Pandemic Diary! I never thought I would still be doing this nearly a year later. We’ve made tremendous progress, but the variants make it seem as though the pandemic will never end. Let’s see what March brings.
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