This screenshot from B.C. Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry's latest COVID-19 update shows the trajectory of the pandemic if people don't reduce their social interactions.
With COVID-19 cases surging and academics predicting B.C.’s hospitals will surpass capacity in May, rumours of a lockdown were everywhere in the province. But when Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry and Health Minister Adrian Dix gave their updates on Monday and Thursday, no additional restrictions were brought in.
B.C. is now averaging more than 1,100 cases every day, more people are in hospital than ever before in this pandemic and there are more than 10,000 active cases. Apparently, the province has more cases of the P.1 variant first identified in Brazil than anywhere else in the world other than Brazil itself, although that statistic may be skewed by the fact that B.C. has been screening more for variants.
Nonetheless, the more contagious, and possibly more deadly, variants of concern account for about 60 per cent of the cases in the province. The P.1 variant accounts for 49 per cent of variant cases and the B.117 variant accounts for 51 per cent. Those are the two dominant variants, but there are also others that are of concern. P.1 dominates in Vancouver Coastal; B. 117 in Fraser, data shows.
COVID-19 modelling done by a group of B.C. academics found that transmission needs to be reduced by about 40 per cent to control case growth or else hospitalization numbers will rise above capacity. They recommend public health measures to reduce contacts and a change to the province’s vaccination strategy to prioritize those who have the most contacts rather than the oldest citizens.
Dr. Henry reiterated this week that it is older people who are most vulnerable to dying or getting seriously ill from COVID-19 and said B.C. would stick to its age-based vaccine program, while targeting hot spots for a parallel program.
B.C. needs to get social interactions down to about 40 per cent of normal to bend the curve, but we’re now closer to 60 per cent.
Even if we can see people outside our household, we shouldn't right now, she says. If we do, it should be the same small group of people and it should be outside.
For the first time ever, Dr. Henry suggested wearing a mask when outside, which is a massive change from her mask messaging of a year ago when she said they didn’t help.
She also revealed that about 400 British Columbians had tested positive for COVID-19 more than 14 days after being immunized with at least one dose – a note for all of us to continue to be cautious even after vaccination. She said she isn’t aware of anyone other than one person older than 100 who died after vaccination.
Calling it a “never-ending pandemic,” Dr. Henry said the protections from transmission are the same for the variants as they were for normal COVID-19.
"There is no margin for error right now," she says. "You're transmitting to more people when you're in that risky situation."
Here’s what else happened this week.
- Hospitals in the Lower Mainland are feeling the COVID-19 strain, particularly when it comes to staffing, the Vancouver Sun reports.
- Facing closure due to revenue declines in the pandemic, the Vancouver Aquarium has been sold to an American entertainment company, the Vancouver Sun reports.
- Canadians are urging decision makers to prioritize essential workers for vaccines and to provide paid sick leave for them, the Globe and Mail reports.
- The United Kingdom began reopening after a long-term shutdown to combat the B.117 variant, the BBC reports.
- B.C. is rescheduling some surgeries to redirect nurses to ICUs, in Surrey, Abbotsford and New Westminster, said Health Minister Adrian Dix.
- Hospitals in Toronto are shutting their pediatric units to make room for COVID-19 cases. Children will be consolidated at Toronto’s Hospital for Sick Children, the Globe and Mail reports.
- An anti-curfew protest in Montreal turned violent in Montreal this week, the Globe and Mail reports.
- The United States is halting use of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine after reports of blood clots, the Globe and Mail reports.
- Canada saw its first report of a blood clot following vaccination with the AstraZeneca vaccine. It was a woman in Quebec and experts would not reveal her age, the CBC reports.
- Just 41 per cent of Canadians who are not yet vaccinated for COVID-19 say they would be comfortable receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine, an Angus Reid Institute survey found. Nearly one-quarter (23 per cent) of those who haven’t yet received a vaccine but intend to say they would reject a dose from AstraZeneca outright if that is the brand being administered to them, the survey found. Women older than 34 were the most opposed, with two in five saying they are “extremely uncomfortable” with the idea of receiving the AZ vaccine. Fully 69 per cent of Canadians surveyed said they had either already had at least one vaccine or they would like to be vaccinated as soon as possible.
- Everyone in B.C. can now register for their vaccination, but they won’t get an appointment until it’s their turn. Registration is open at https://www.getvaccinated.gov.bc.ca/s/.
- Here’s an interesting article from the New York Times about what women need to know about COVID-19 vaccines, including blood clots, menstruation, mammograms and more.
- The Pfizer CEO said people will likely need a booster shot 12 months after their second COVID-19 dose, CNBC reports.
Although the news is dire, ever week we learn more about this dreadful plague. Let’s hope next week brings a lesson that helps us out of this mess.
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