This chart, from Dr. Henry's most recent modelling presentation, shows the proportion of the dominant variants in B.C.
For the first time in 14 months, B.C.’s top doctor sounds very hopeful.
“In most areas of the province there have been little to no cases,” Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry said. “The risk of transmission and our risk of the virus in our communities is going down dramatically.”
She said she’s feeling optimistic, even though worries about variants – which make up most cases in B.C. – do keep her up at night.
The number of other people a person with COVID-19 infects, the R number, is trending below one, for the first time in many, many weeks," Dr. Henry says. "This is really great news."
Even with increased contacts up to 80 per cent of normal, we won't see exponential growth of the COVID-19 virus, Dr. Henry says. There may be increased cases, but because of immunization, COVID-19 outbreaks should be manageable, she said.
“We don’t believe we will have to take those very severe, drastic measures that we’ve had to take these last 14 months,” Dr. Henry said.
On Monday, Dr. Henry and B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix will be joined by Premier John Horgan to update B.C.’s reopening plan and it’s looking very likely the province will move to Step 2 on June 15. Step 2 includes organized gatherings indoors and outdoors of up to 50 people, liquor service until midnight, an end to travel restrictions within the province, and a restart for high-intensity indoor fitness classes.
COVID-19 may return in the fall, with respiratory season, Dr. Henry said.
“There are always curveballs that can come. We are preparing for those,” she said.
It’s important for western countries to make sure developing countries have access to vaccines, she said.
“Every time you see an explosion and more people being infected, there are going to be variants that arise. We need to keep our eye on the global picture.”
She likened COVID-19’s long-term future to flu outbreaks.
“It will be years until we see how this virus will evolve and yet we can expect there will be transmission this fall and it’s yet to be seen whether that transmission will be more like a bad influenza season or whether it will be milder.”
Let’s hope her optimism is well placed.
Here’s the rest of the news from this week:
- Experts warned several provinces, including B.C. about the dangers of reopening too fast, especially with the risks of COVID-19 variants, the Canadian Press reports.
- B.C. is now doing whole-genome sequencing on every positive COVID-19 test. Dr. Henry says that as we open up and people are travelling more, it’s important to know what strains are here.
- The Alpha (UK) and Gamma (Brazil) variants are most common in B.C. now, but Delta (India) is growing, the data presented by Dr. Henry shows. Another 14 variants are also being monitored by the BC CDC, she said.
- Movie theatres may open on Tuesday in B.C. if the reopening plan follows the planned schedule, the Vancouver Sun reports.
- The federal government sent $9 million in COVID-19 relief payments to Canadians who were deceased and their estates will not have to pay it back, the Vancouver Sun reports.
- The Canada-U.S. border may open for fully vaccinated travellers as soon as June 22, the Globe and Mail reports. Also, Canadians who are fully vaccinated and test negative on their return to Canada may not have to quarantine as soon as July.
- Manitoba is offering cash awards and scholarships as incentives for people to get a COVID-19 vaccine, the Globe and Mail reports.
- Two passengers on a Mediterranean cruise tested positive for COVID-19, the Washington Post reports.
- Canadian neighbourhoods with a high number of immigrants saw much higher death rates from COVID-19, the Canadian Press reports.
- Ontario will speed up second doses of COVID-19 vaccines in neighbourhoods with high numbers of the Delta variant, first identified in India, the Globe and Mail reports.
- There’s a new treatment for the blood clots associated with the AstraZeneca vaccine, the Globe and Mail reports.
- British Columbia's auto insurer, ICBC, is issuing a second round of rebates, after vehicle accidents dropped 20 per cent during the pandemic.
I’m planning some small steps in bringing my life back to normal – brunch with a friend, maybe a movie sometime soon – but it still doesn’t feel like time to be in a large crowd or travel too far from home. Let’s hope this week, as we approach the longest day of the year, brings more light to our lives.
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